Prediction

I went through some results on my local running club's website and extrapolated a prediction of my finishing time for Steamboat based on what I discovered. I found six members of my club, there were probably more but I didn't feel like digging that deep, who ran the Passavant-Powerade 10k and the Steamboat 4 mile last year. Their times were: 36:32/22:47, 38:53/23:33, 39:27/23:33, 41:18/25:34, 43:30/26:11, and 43:37/28:17. I took the difference of their 10k pace and their 4 mile pace and averaged them together. When I took the average of all six runners I found that they had improved their pace at Steamboat by an average of 16 seconds. When I excluded the guy who ran Steamboat 4 seconds slower per mile than he ran the Passavant 10k I found that the other five improved their pace per mile by 20 seconds.

Based on those results I believe that I am capable of running Steamboat in 25:52-26:08. That is in line with my thoughts earlier in the week that I was capable or running 26:00 or better.

My plan is to go out the first mile 6:30 -6:40 pace. I would like to be at the two mile mark in 13:00 or under but no slower than 13:05. That would put me into position to be at the three mile mark in 19:30 or faster and then I'm just hoping to use the downhill the last mile to my advantage and sneak in under 26:00.

Daniels says to put yourself in position to finish in negative splits by the time your race is 75% over because you usually don't slow down too much the last 25% of a race unless you've run incredibly stupid in the preceding 75%. He says that aside from a few position changes in the final sprints not much changes. I tend to agree with him.

Nate, what do you think? Will I be faster or slower than my range?